Required Reading For all!!! | Rickj's Handicapping Picks

MUST READ — Updated April 2026

This page was just updated. Read it before you do anything else. I mean that.

Where We Stand After 20+ Years

I have been handicapping and documenting my plays for over 20 years. That is not a marketing number — it is the actual sample size. We are well past the point where variance alone can explain the results. The data across two decades of documented plays supports a high probability that this is a positive expected value method. That is a meaningful statement and I do not make it lightly.

What has not changed — and will never change — is this: none of that matters if you do not manage your money correctly. A positive EV method does not save you from yourself. I have watched people with access to winning picks lose money anyway. Every single time, the cause is the same: bet sizing and discipline, or rather the absence of them.

I spent 35 years trying jury trials as a litigator. Then 15 years playing poker professionally. Both taught me the same thing — human nature is the enemy of good decision-making under uncertainty. Sports betting is no different. You are not betting against the game. You are betting against yourself.

Bankroll Rules — Non-Negotiable

These are not suggestions. They are the operating system. Ignore them at your own peril.

Set aside a dedicated betting bankroll. The amount should be one you could lose entirely without it affecting your life. If that number does not exist for you right now, you are not ready to bet. Come back when it does.
Bet exactly 2% of your bankroll on every single play. Not 3%, not 5%, not “I feel strong about this one so I’ll go bigger.” Two percent. Every time. As your bankroll grows, your bet size grows proportionally. As it shrinks, so does your bet size. This is how you stay in the game long enough for the edge to work.
Do not diverge from the above. Ever. Discipline is not a personality trait you either have or don’t — it is a rule you either follow or you don’t. If you cannot follow a rule you set for yourself, this is not the hobby for you.
It gets easier. The first few weeks you will fight it. Betting 2% when you are down will feel wrong. Betting 2% when you are on a heater will feel like you are leaving money on the table. Both feelings are human nature, and both feelings are wrong. Stay the course and it becomes automatic.
I am available. As a subscriber you have direct access to me most days via email and on the RickJSports Discord channel. Use it. I have been doing this a long time and there is not a situation I have not encountered. Getting advice costs you nothing. Not getting it could cost you plenty.
Reread this page every month. Not because you will forget the rules. Because you will forget why the rules matter. There is a difference.

The Things That Will Kill Your Bankroll

Vig. Do not lay more than -110. The one exception: in the NFL, on a 3-point line, I will lay -115 to get +3.5 instead of +3. A half-point off a key number is worth the extra juice. That is the only exception. If you are routinely laying -120, -125, or more, the house is eating your edge before the game even starts.

Chasing the line. If you see one of my plays come out at -105, do not bet more units because it is cheaper. Two percent is two percent regardless of the line.

Variance. This is the one that ends most positive EV bettors before they ever find out they had an edge. At some point you should expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown. If you are betting an amount where that drawdown would cause you financial or psychological distress, you are betting too much. Downswings are not a sign the method is broken — they are a sign the method is real.

Yourself. I had a stretch once where we were running well — consistently profitable, winning plays week after week. Subscribers started dropping the service. Not because we were losing. Because they had convinced themselves the streak was about to end. That is pure human nature and it is exactly backwards from what you should do. The market does not care about your feelings. The only variable you control is bet size — so control it.

What You Are Paying For

You are paying for documented picks from a 20+ year positive EV record across multiple sports, and for direct access to someone who understands both the math and the psychology of this game at a level most people never reach.

The 50% Refund Pledge: if RickJ does not have a winning MLB season in any year you are subscribed, you will automatically receive a 50% refund for that subscription period. No need to request it. No other handicapper does this.

How Plays Are Delivered

Plays go out via email and on the RickJSports Discord channel. If you are not already in the Discord, get there. It is the fastest way to receive plays and interact with me directly.

All subscriptions also include access to the RickJInvest Discord channel, where I provide ongoing commentary on investments and markets. Same philosophy as handicapping — understand the edge, size the position correctly, ignore the noise.

Current Season Results

These are documented results. Every play goes out before the game. There is no revisionist history here.

The Bottom Line

Twenty-plus years of data says this works. The bankroll rules say how to make it work for you. Everything else on this page is context for why those rules exist.

If this page gives you second thoughts — good. That is the point. I would rather have ten subscribers who follow the rules than a hundred who don’t.

For those who get it: welcome aboard.

RickJ
Las Vegas
April 2026