We survived the first half of MLB this season without the overnight plays. I had sent out an email indicating that there would be no overnight plays this season as a result of the data I was getting for overnights going out of business. I tried a new database last season, and it was dismal so I decided no more overnights until I found another reliable database to use.

The one I had been using gave us a lot of profit over the 4 to 5 years or so I had been using it. The new database I tried last season, for whatever reason did not work out well.

So this season I went with day of game plays in MLB, similar to what I do in all sports. Except I tweaked it a bit to where I felt it would produce steady profits with a lot less variance. In gambling that is not easy to do.

But so far this season it has worked out, here are the season to date results for MLB up the all star break:

2025 Season

March
Sides 0-2 -2.00

April
Sides 3-3 +.69

May 2-0 +2.52
Totals 0-3-1 -3.10

June
Sides 7-5 +6.86
Totals 11-8-1 +.55

July
Sides 1-2 +0.44
Totals 2-1 +0.90

Season to date:
Sides: 14-12 +8.51
Totals: 13-12-2 -1.65
Combined: 27-24-2 +6.86 ROI 13.45%

A few things to note. The number of plays has diminished substantially from when I was posting overnight plays and no day of game plays. This was an expected by product of the shift.

Making money in handicapping is no easy go of it:) MLB for me has always been the toughest sport since I began posting plays online some 20+ years ago. Time certainly goes by fast. It seems like just yesterday I was posting on 2+2 every day.

Well I am still at it:) And still tweaking when necessary. I think I have a method now in MLB that will produce perhaps 5 to 10 units over the season. And one where you will not see the 1o to 15 unit downswings periodically. We will see:)

In the meantime this season as with last season MLB and all sports until the beginning of college football is FREE. I have taken the protected discord directories that were open only to subscribers and made them public.

I did this for both RickJSports and RickJInvest my two discord channels. In addition for those that wanted to join during the free period, I am sending out plays also to everyone via email using rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com

If you wish to join us for the 2nd half of MLB, for FREE, just send me an email and I will send you an invite to my Discord channels and place you on the email list. Then when the first game of NCAA FB begins , the plays will go back to subscription based.

I will take all Subscribers using paypal off of pause and they will pick up right where they were when we went to free. Everyone that is using the free period will have plenty of time to subscribe if they choose to. But once the first game of NCAA FB is to start, free signons, will be discontinued and those taking advantage of it will be deleted.

As far as next years MLB I have not decided whether to have it free or subscription. A lot will depend on how we end up this season, and my analysis of the results during the off season.

If anyone has any questions you can contact me at riccja3@gmail.com , that is usually the best email to get my attention. I am in the process of setting up a chat server on my site, one a bit more sophisticated then what I have now. So, when that is done you will be able to communicate with me on the website.

As those that have been with me for 20+ years know, handicapping sports is a passion of mine. You can find a 2+2 article on handicapping the NFL I wrote in Two Plus Two Magazine, Vol. 7, No. 12 on the top menu of this site. A person that I played poker with at the time worked actively with 2+2 and asked me to write an article. I at first was reluctant, but the more I got to know the person, the more I was comfortable doing it. We became friends and had some very interesting conversations at the poker table.

One of them happened when we were sitting next to each other at an Omaha 8 game at the Bellagio. It was a lively game, and I had an incredible run of good cards only to find myself down about six racks in a short period of time:) (there is a downside of getting good cards).  He turned to me in bewilderment asking when I was going to quit. I responded , what is the difference if you downswing in poker occurs in one session or 3 months? It is just variance. And if I am playing well and the game is good there is no reason to quit. He was impressed with the response, and told me after 2 racks he gets mad:) So he quits.

Those are the types of conversations I enjoy having. There are not enough people around that you can talk to in that way and they understand unfortunately:)

Hope you enjoyed this short story, and I hope to see you join us for the 2nd half of MLB. Follow along and see if this might be for you.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Discord: RickJSports

RickJInvest

 

Similar to last season, MLB season is free for all plays and all sports until the beginning of NCAA FB.

I did this last  year because of the database I used going out of business. So until

I get a reliable database, the overnights are going to be few and far between. I am going back to traditional day of game plays, using a different model.

If it turns out to produce solid results then I will consider putting it back on the active sport list. But for now its free.

 

The results are in for last season on many sports. Here is the breakdown:

 

2024/25 NCAA Hoops
November
Totals 0-5
Sides 0-1

 

Dec
2-1

 

Jan
20-20-1

 

Feb
17-15-3

 

March
Totals 2-0Sides  8-4

 

NCAA BB Tourn
Totals 1-2-1
Sides 0-1

 

Combined
Totals 5-8-1
Sides 47-44-4

 

NBA 2024/2025

October Sides 0-1

November Sides 2-3

December Sides 0-1

February Sides 1-1

Combined Sides 3-6

 

NCAA FB Results 2024
Sides 4-0
Totals 1-2

 

Wk 3
Sides 3-5
Totals 0-1

 

Wk 4
Sides 2-5
Totals 1-1

 

Wk 5
Sides 4-4
Totals 1-3

 

Wk 6
Sides 4-4
Totals 0-2

 

Wk 7
Sides 4-1

 

Wk 8
Sides 2-3
Totals 0-1

 

Wk 9
Sides 2-3

 

Wk 10
Sides 5-1

 

Wk 11
Sides 3-2

 

Wk 12

Sides 4-2-1

 

Wk 13

Sides 1-2
Totals 1-1

 

Wk 14
Sides 2-3
Totals 1-0

 

Post Season
Sides 5-1

 

Combined Season to date
Sides 45-36 -1
Totals 5-11

 

NFL Wk 1
Sides 1-0
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-2-1
All Spread Contest  10-6

 

Wk 2
Sides 1-1
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest  8-8

 

Wk 3
Sides 2-0
Top 5 contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest  9-7

 

Wk 4
Sides 2-1
Top 5 contest Picks 3-2
All Spread Contest  10-6

 

Wk 5
Sides 1-1
Top 5 Contest Picks 2-3
All Spread Contest 7-6 ( NO +5.5 left)

 

Wk 6
Sides 0-3
Top 5 Contest Picks 1-4
All Spread Contest 1-13!!!

 

Wk 7
Sides 0-2
Top 5 Contest Picks 1-4
All Spread Contest 4-9

 

Wk 8
Sides 2-0
Top 5 Contest Picks 4-0 with Giants left tonight
All spread contest 6-9 (still in free fall)

 

Wk 9
Sides 0-1
Top 5  2-3
All Spread  5-10

 

Wk 10

Sides  0-1
Top 5  3-2
All Spread 7-7

 

Wk 11
Sides 1-1
Top 5 2-3
All Spread 6-7

 

Wk 12
Sides 1-0
Top 5 3-2
All Spread 8-6

 

Wk 13
Sides 2-0
Top 5 3-2
All Spread 6-9

 

Wk 14
Sides 1-2
Top 5 2-3
All Spread 6-7

 

Wk 16
Sides 1-2

Wk 17
Sides 2-0

 

Wk 18
Sides 3-0

 

Season to date
Sides 20-15

Top 5 Contest Picks 31-36`
All Spread Contest 94-114 ( 137th out of 147 entries) #1 is 127-81. My worse showing ever in this contest. So bad, I am going to have to rethink how I am picking every game:)

 

NHL

 

Novermber
1-0 +141
December
3-1  +320
Jan
2-1  +128
Feb
No plays
Mar
2-3 -41

Season to Date:
8-5 + 528

 

To Join our group for the MLB season, just send me an email to riccja3@gmail.com and I will add you to the email list, and both Discord channels. Plays and discussion are found in the Discord area, while plays only in the emails.

 

Good Luck Today

RickJ

 

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com 

Pre market comments posted to my Discord Channel RickJInvest this morning:

7/8
A lot to go over this morning. It is 2:00 AM here in Vegas:) My sleeping schedule is reversed from what it was when I was playing poker full time. Now I am early to bed and up between 1 and 2 AM to start the day. The first hour is going over the overnight plays in MLB, then during the week the next few hours are getting ready for the trading day. Then On Monday and Friday I leave the house for 5:30 A.M. Pickleball:) 1.5 hours of play and its back home to finish out the trading day:)
[1:56 AM] When I was playing poker full time it was the exact opposite. The motto is you can adjust to about any routine that fits into your routine that you pick for your daily activities. Once you settle into it, you do not think anything of it anymore.
[1:58 AM] We start the week with a lot of news from last week, and we get no vacation from the news cycle this week, or perhaps any week heading into the November elections. But one overwhelming theme is that heading into November elections, the powers that run this country are not going to allow a market crash. They will do everything they can to keep this bull market intact, and interest rates from rising. After November however all bets are off. As depending on who wins will set the course for monetary policy for the next four years.
[1:59 AM] In other words, take advantage of the tail wind while it is still there, as once it is removed, look out below:)

Starting out with the monthly chart of $SPX, you can see the almost straight up move of the index Beginning in October of 2022
[2:04 AM]

 

In Dec of 2021 the Fed decided to reduce its balance sheet which resulted in a year pullback. Then in October of 2022, although their rhetoric was hawkish, they slowly started to reverse course resulting in this run. The lesson is, do not fight the fed. As a trader you need to be aware of not what they are saying, but what they are actually doing!
[2:06 AM] I do not put a lot of weight on the week to week reports that come out as most are fictious numbers, which are adjusted substantially a month later. But a lot of traders do pay attention to them and react to them, so it becomes important to know what they are reporting, not for reality, but the messaging and clues they provide.
[2:08 AM] For instance the non farm payrolls was revised down by 57000 jobs for April. That is a big miss:) If I were in business and I was off that much I would not have a job very long.

riccja — Today at 2:09 AM
Usually the initial report is for the messaging, then the revision comes in about the same time as the new report for the next month. The new report gets the headlines, and the revision is found somewhere in the small print. See how that works:)

 

Daily on QQQ shows new highs for this move, we had a small consolidation starting in June with a breakout late last week. FVE is healthy,

In addition the all important QQQ/SPY chart is widening. Remember this is perhaps the best chart that tells whether you have a tail wind or head wind. When QQQ out performs SPY think Tailwind:)

A lot of activity in TLT, primarily because of the mixed messaging of Powell and the gang. TLT has been reacting violently to every news item that hits lately. But as you can see from the daily chart above , while it is messy, the trend is up, which means mortgage rates are declining, at least for the time being.

riccja — Today at 2:27 AM
In order to trade effectivly you have to be able to know what reality is. That means staying away from the incessant 24/7 cable news cycle. You would be better off not watching cable news, and sticking to apolitical journalists and experts that either have their own shows on Rumble, or put out their own substacks. Unfortunately cable news has become propaganda outlets. My view is that if you could wager on the truth of what they are asserting, and wagered the opposite across the board, you would win around 80% of your wagers:) Unfortunately, they do not put out lines on most of the absurd commentary you see on Cable news.
[2:29 AM] But I have friends and family when you talk about what is going on around the world you would think you are listening to a cable news commentator. And if you make the wrong decision to engage them on any subject, you face a whirlwind of backlash. So my rule is to not engage, keep my views of reality to myself, and move ahead, trying to make successful trades that come around because many are not reality based.
[2:30 AM] Think of it as being a contrarian:)
[2:31 AM] One of the big questions out there now is whether the Fed is going to start cutting rates.

riccja — Today at 2:34 AM
It is getting late in the game for them to start cutting for election purposes. That tells me regardless of what they say, rates most likely are not going to be cut much heading into November. Why? Certainly the news is out there that would justify rate cuts. From the Geopollitical uncertainty around the world, the political dysfunction in the US, the uncertainty of the 2024 elections, the almost certain violence that will come about around election time, the pandemic (bird flu) that is starting to be talked about) , the bank failures, and of course the economic data. All in normal times would have the Fed flooding liquidity into the markets.
[2:35 AM] But not this time. We will have to wait until after November when I think the answer will be obvious.
[2:37 AM] Hint: How many times has Yellen talked about Climate change being the #1 priority of the Fed? More than once would be too much as it is not a federal reserve issue. Everytime she talks she discusses Climate change. I would suggest that after November this will become front and center again, so be forwarned.

riccja — Today at 2:49 AM

[2:49 AM] Note that this week on Tuesday and Wednesday we have Powell testifying in front of Congress
[2:50 AM] Tuesday the Senate and Wednesday the House
[2:50 AM] Then Thursday it is CPI and Friday PPI
[2:50 AM] So a busy week:)
[2:52 AM] Let me suggest it would be time better spent to watch and see what our elected members of the Senate and House are doing in the trading arena rather then the testimony of Powell:)

riccja — Today at 4:01 AM
So as I started today, this is going to be a busy week for news. On friday we collected $260.00 on our short put with PTLR. The trade was never at risk of closing below the strike price. I am going to focus on these types of trades where I feel there is a very high win % with a low risk of trading below the strike price. In addition, while my GME did not meet my criteria because of the quality of the company, I am going to stick to my parameters as to the company quality as it will allow me to sell calls in the event it trades below the strike price at the close on Friday. Also remember, there is still exposure in trading after the close on Friday. So pay attention to pricing after hours!!!
[4:02 AM] So for now we have our portfolio consisting of Closed end funds with quality management that trade at a significant discount to Net Asset Value.
[4:03 AM] Mean reversion is off the table for now, and now and then I trade a swing trade.
[4:04 AM] With the markets going to higher levels so quick, and the uncertainty of the political environment in the US, being prudent is at least for me the way to go.
[4:05 AM] How bad can that strategy be when cash now returns around 5% risk free:)

 

I typically post premarket comments about 3 times a week. In the discord channel I welcome comments and discussion. 4 years ago I added the investing portion as a no cost add on for my handicapping subscribers who also were interesting in trading.

Most of my trades are given out as I trade them. This has become a very popular addition to my handicapping group, some of who have been with me since the very beginning, over 20 years ago:)

Right now everything is free! It will stay that way until the beginning of college football.  Since I am using a new data base for overnight MLB plays I decided it would not be fair to charge for MLB until I find a solid data set. These data providers come and go, and the one I was using went:)

It is not easy to find reliable data sources. For example while we are beating the closing line by over 70% this season, we have been carrying a net loss for most of the season of around 13 units. This can of course turn, but we are at over 160 plays now, so we will see:)

And MLB for overnight sides ends the end of August. September historically has been a miserable month for Overnight Sides.

Now back to handicapping, you can take a look at what I have to offer now for free. Just send me an email to RickJ@Rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will sign you up for the email list, and also send you an invite to my two discord channels.

Just the side comments on a variety of different issues (Health and HOAs) are worth taking a look at.

So join us at least until the end of August when you will have a chance to join us for the Football season.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

Below are the Overnight Sides I sent out to subscribers :

953	PIT		J JONES -R	123
954			J STEELE -L
961	OAK		J ESTES -R	180
962			C JAVIER -R

I send the Overnight sides out via email, discord and slack usually around midnight. Sometimes earlier. With the change in databases the updated stats I use to detect EV in the opening numbers is not as early as the previous database I had been using. In addition, the times are not consistent. That results in having to get up around midnight and send these out.

So far we are hovering around even this season with the new database. My thoughts are at this point that when the smoke clears, we will end up around +10 to 15 units on these. The key is the numbers I put out showing that we are beating the closing line well over 60% of time by an average of .04.  Not as good as previous years, but as long as this is positive the expectation is the net result will be positive at the end of the season.

Along with my plays during the year I also post market commentary on my other discord Channel RickJInvest

This is free to the sports side subscribers who also have an interest in trading. Not only do I post many of my trades, but also on some days my thoughts prior to the market open.

Here is what I posted this morning:

When they say strange things happen in the markets during presidential election years, they are understating it:)
We have gone from high inflation , raising rates, to no inflation and now rates will be heading down by the Fed soon, and the 10 year note is falling like a rock:)
The CPI number was below expectations yesterday, so now on a dime everything is fine!
See how that goes, its may and in 6 months elections roll around that will shape the course of this country
And as importantly will shape policy of countries around the world
If you think for a 2nd that monetary policy is independent and divorced from this process I have a bridge to sell you:)
The only thing that surprises me is that it took as long as it has for the narrative to shift. They really cut it close this time around.
Am I a cynic, perhaps, am I delusional , most likely not, but I will say this I am right more often then I am wrong. That is all one can hope to accomplish in all decision making endeavors.
So the chart of TNX tells a pretty story if your looking to buy a home or for that matter sell a home. Which as it turns out is me:)

I have never encountered the difficulty I have been having this time around in my many real estate endeavors.
The lessons to be learned are this: 1. Never ever buy into a 55+ community 2. Never buy into a new development. The problem is the developer keeps control of everything for a very long time to their advantage. The control the board, they control property management and they control all the vendors.
And even when you have transition they still control select board members who have bought into their agenda, and property management remains in their pocket.
Now this can be a good thing or a bad thing. Or sometime neutral. As sometimes homeowners and the developers interests are the same. But more often the conflict. And when they do, guess who wins out, the developer. They control almost every aspect of the community.
The board members that relate to the developer, and help them even after transition are doing it either because of “the Stockholm syndrome, or out of the misguided thought they are doing the right thing. Or perhaps other reasons. But if things turn sideways, the homeowners can be in a very bad spot.
So rather then take that chance, buy into an established community with a track record of fairness to homeowners. Otherwise you are in for some sleep less nights.

I will be writing a book on this subject once I move out of the community I am in and sell my home here. The community on its surface looks like a retirement haven:) But, underneath you have dysfunction on top of dysfunction. A mini animal farm:)
Since it is a rather small community you have residents who tend to fall into two groups. And they fight each other often. The stories I have to tell are comical and tragic. But in the end since I never take life too seriously the book and hopefully the screen play will be very entertaining.
As am example I received a notice to appear before the board. That was it. Of course the bylaws and law require specificity with notices like that. This is not a totalitarian system, where at their whim a board can demand a resident to just show up.

The issue of the day had been a long drawn out fight on the issue of spraying synthetic herbicides and pesticides in a 55+ community. Another homeowner and myself lead the discussion on this issue by writing a series of 7 communications to the board, all respectful, informative, annotated with the position that it was not the right way to go in a 55+ community. You can see our emails in RickJSports as a guide for those in a similar situation.
As a former trial attorney I am well trained both in researching these types of issues and presenting compelling arguments.
I have tried as the lead trial attorney cases ranging from Federal mail fraud cases, murder cases, complex products liability and complex medical negligence cases in front of a jury.
So this issue was a simple one, as the trend is around the world to go with safer alternatives. It is one that in front of a reasonable thinking audience we would have persuaded them. But not this time:)
To shorten this up, the end result is I am moving out in 7 to 10 days, and paying an extra 4000 a month just to be out of here until my home sells. And I will end up taking a loss for one of the first times in my life on the sale of this home.

What happened to me is an outlier in the standpoint of the extreme reaction our emails got from the board. No logic can explain the reaction, but one day when the smoke clears here and I am free to discuss everything. I will start my book. As I know what the reasons are and what is occurring in the powers to be in this community.
At least for a few of them.
Do back to the chart:)
I celebrate this as this means to me and many others that the process of selling and buying a home will be a bit easier , at least until November. After November all bets are off.

 

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning!
FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile.
This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)

 

 

As most of you know who have been following me from my sports handicapping side, I tend to be a contrarian.
What could be more contrarian then to fade the public who are sticking their money now into money market funds
Eventually this money will find its way into the markets, but if history is a guide it will be close to the top:)

I usually do not digress into personal areas, but, in this case it is illustrative of how the rate changes can effect real life situations. And for some might give some guidance on how HOA living can go sideways if you do not do your homework:)

All this and more is free until the beginning of football season. Then we are back to subscribers only. If you want to take advantage of this free offer, just email me at rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will get you on the email list, and discord channels.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

A 2-3 day yesterday and we find ourselves right at the breakeven mark heading into the middle of May. Top to bottom swing has only been around 10 units.

We are beating the closing line at a rate of 46-28-3 which is 62% of the time.  The difference over the 77 wagers is around .04.   A little low historically, but I am using

a new database this season. The company I was using went out of business after many years:)

But this one has been around and solid a very long time.

Overnight picks for 5/12 games are :

959			W BUEHLER -R
960	SDG		Y DARVISH -R		115
961			B ELDER -R
962	NYM		L SEVERINO -R		110
965			J VERLANDER -R
966	DET		J FLAHERTY -R		101
971			S LUGO -R
972	LAA		P SANDOVAL -L		117

Remember RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now a free service until the beginning of NCAA FB. All subscribers monthly payments have been paused and you will pick up right where you left off when I switched to a free service.

The reason for this is 1. I am using a new database 2. I have a number of personal items on my plate, of which selling and buying another home is top on my priority list. You do not know the amount of effort this takes until you get into the actual process. I have been doing it my entire life, and still I have found no way to make it an easy process.

I lived 18 years peacefully in the last community I was in here in Las Vegas, but as I tend to do when property values dramatically increase, I take my profit. In the last sale it was $650,000 profit of which 500,000 was tax free!  But after 2 years in the community I am in now, it is clear it is not a good fit for us. So for the first time ever I am going to take a loss on this one.

I will write more on the process of buying and selling homes on my discord channel, sharing with you some of the rules to go by and should never be broken, unless you are into pain:)

So, in fairness to subscribers, in the past I have had handicapping my top priority. Once this chaos is over, which should be before the start of college football, it will be back to #1. with trading a close 2nd.

As a subscriber you get all plays sent out via email, and also access to my two discord channels, RickJSports and RickJInvest

If you wish to join us for the free period of time, just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com. I will have you signed up quickly with invites to both discord channels.

A week before the beginning of college football I will start sending out reminders that the free service becomes a paying service soon. Most subscribers sign up for the $49.00 a month option with a few taking the $499.00 yearly option.

I started sharing my picks online over 20 years ago. It is a testament to my ability to find positive EV plays, that I have had subscribers from day 1!  I am 100% transparent on my results as those that know me know.  Almost all my new signups come from word of mouth, as I do not advertise. 

If anyone has any questions, please do not hesitate to write me at the above email address.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com