Saturday we had no plays and 5 big move games. 2 of the games were postponed.
The big move games were 1-2 in predicting the line moves on Saturday. Bringing the predictions of moves to 71-29-2 or 69.6% with the average move of +.0755.
But there is something else to consider about the Big Line Move games. These are not only games where I feel the line will move significantly but also games where based upon my models compared to the early lines has significant value.
Yesterday the games went into positive territory for betting at 54-48 for +3.38 units.
So if you blindly took all 102 games you would be +3.38 units. So far on the plays, we are -1.96 units.
So my variables and public % inputs are lagging behind the models for finding value.
It is way too early to draw final conclusions about this and the way sports betting goes this might just be an April thing. As most sports have seasons within seasons.
I will be tracking this month by month and also with a total and let’s see how this all works out by the end of the season. But an interesting development for April to say the least. At least interesting to me:)
Today so far I have sent out no plays and 5 Big Move Games.
Once you have had a chance to consider the above, if you have any questions do not hesitate to send me an email.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
