Here we are at the All-Star Break so seems like a good time to go through the first half of MLB results and also make a few observations.
Let’s start out with the final tally:
April -2.52 units
May -5.21 units
June +6.885 units
July -2.93 units
The total is -3.775 Units for the 1st half of the season.
Breaking it down further:
1 unit plays 17-30 -7.04 Units
1/2 Unit plays 32-37 -.225 units
1/2 unit totals 21-19-2 -.22 units
1/2 unit overnights 55-48 +3.69 units
With that backdrop to put things into perspective we started out the season with a one unit play category that went 0-9 to start out the year:( Since the beginning of the year, we have had an 11 unit top to bottom swing.
That is incredibly small of a top to bottom swing for 3.5 months of betting every day.
Now, last season at this time we are almost exactly where we were at last season in terms of units. The way we got there last season, however, was different in the top to bottom swing was in the neighborhood of 25 to 30 units.
I attribute that to the adjustments I have made over the offseason. Anytime you can reduce top to bottom swings and not give up anything on EV you have made a good adjustment.
One thing I note on the results is not so much the units as if you have a positive EV handicapping the results will take care of themselves in the long run. The long run is not 1/2 a season or a season for that matter.
When I was playing poker full time I never gave a thought to the swings until the end of the year when I looked over my spreadsheets to see what they revealed for the different games I played and different limits. That is pretty much the approach I take with handicapping.
That is why I don’t typically make adjustments until offseason. This is not a hard and fast rule but as a general rule that is how I approach it.
Going forward for the 2nd half of the season I plan on taking the same approach I have taken without many adjustments.
A comment I would make here is that if you are not getting the breakdown of the games you really should take a look at them. 1st they come with the subscription but more importantly if you’re doing your own handicapping it will reward you immensely.
There is a lot of information and it is all in an easy to read format sent to your email.
I plan on keeping this breakdown for the NFL and top 20 matchups in college football and hoops.
Friday begins the 2nd half of the season so expect overnights being sent out Thursday.
The game by game and day by day results are on my google sheet page.
For those double checking my numbers please let me know if you have corrections before Friday. As once we get past the first week of the 2nd half of the season the results are locked in. I want to avoid the time everyone spent last season poring over the numbers. I might add that this looking over the numbers last season gave me a bigger win than I had in the spreadsheets. So let’s say 7/21 as the cutoff day for any changes.
If anyone has any questions please let me know.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
