Our Overnight play went 2-0 last night.
That brings our season to date record to :
2024 Season
March
Overnight Sides
1-4 -2.88
line change
3-1-1 +.046
April
Overnight Sides
20-19 +1.91
Line Change
26-12-1 +.0507
Top to bottom swing for season to date +3.53 to -2.88 Units with 38 plays. That is only a 6.41 unit swing. Very low so far.
Tonights plays are: (These are sent out the day before the game)
| 901 | F PERALTA -R | ||||||
| 902 | PIT | M KELLER -R | 110 | ||||
| 913 | TOR | J BERRIOS -R | 103 | ||||
| 914 | C RAGANS -L | ||||||
| 915 | L CASTILLO -R | ||||||
| 916 | TEX | A HEANEY -L | 108 | ||||
We had a scratch last night on Tampa as Alexander did not go. Whenever that happens it is a no bet with the books as long as you designate Pitchers have to go, and not say action. I always want the pitchers who I designate to go. Otherwise what is the point:)
We had two big line moves last night with Cinc moving our way .38 and Texas moving our way .26. When this happens it is tempting to take a no risk middle for all or a portion of the wager. I do not do that as whenever you make a wager you give up vig. So, while right now we are around .05 the best of the closing line on all our wagers, why give up vig on the back end?
Now, if you had a method that was assured to give you an advantage over the opening line every game, then perhaps you could work out a method that incorporated middles. But as we see some of the games do not go that way. So you will end up with a situation where you stay with a full wager on the games that do not improve, but cut your wager on games where it does. Not a winning method:)
Just embrace variance, as once you go down the path of wagering there is no way to escape it. Take it as a given, and assure the wagering methods you use take into account that variance will occur.
If anyone does not know yet how to do that just send me an email to rickj@rickjshandicappingpicks.com and I will give you a refresher.
Or if you wish to sign onto our service, it is FREE until the beginning of college football. Just email me, and I will add you to our email list and send out invites to both discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord: RickJSports
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