12:30 Update
Not much is looking good today….most likely not plays…I will keep an eye on things but things will have to change quite a bit for any plays to develop.
Saturday our 1 unit plays went 2-2. College hoops 2-1, NBA 0-1 in a close one.
Too early for baskets and NHL.
Two games today in the NFL:
San Fran has 77% of the betting on them. The line has moved contrary to the betting. Pinnacle -2.5-108 to pick -101 Cris -1.5 to -1 even and Bovada -3+105. There is no question that the public is very heavy on San Fran and the “sharp action” is on Carolina heavy.
My models show quite a bit of value on Carolina even at pick. This normally would be a play however there is a variable I consider that points to San Fran….and that is going to put the game as a pass for me. Its tempting…but I do not wish to shade things. However if you love San Fran today…I would temper that and pass on the game. Hard to go with a 77% number.
The next game is Denver San Diego. San Diego has 51% of the betting. The line has moved from -10.5+104 to -8 -102. Cris -9.5 to -7.5-115 And Bovada -8-115. Not near as clear where the public is on this game with the % around 50%.
My models show denver to be overvalued. Variables also point to San Diego. If the public was on Denver I would consider a play on San Diego. Also if the line had not moved so far off the opener this would be a tracking setup. But a 2 or 2.5 move off the opener is not something I wish to fade. So I am passing on the game.
I will update a bit later with any plays or leans.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
